Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
